State 1
Normal
Through 23 March
← Historical crisis replaysSuez Canal
Meridian-only validation
Suez Canal
2021.
A frozen-data historical replay of the Ever Given disruption, evaluated using unchanged maritime thresholds with environmental and event-pressure inputs neutralized.
ValidatedNo look-ahead
1 day
Detection latency
71%
Flow collapse
82%
Capacity collapse
27 Mar
Severe state
5 / 5
Checks passed
Observed movement
Collapse, clearance and normalization.
Average daily vessel movements fell sharply during the blockage before rising above baseline as accumulated traffic cleared the canal.
52.71
56.64
16.43
73.38
51.84
Calm control
Pre-event
Blockage
Clearance
Post-event
State progression
Evidence accumulated over time.
State 2
Watch
24 March
State 3
Disrupted
25–26 March
State 4
Severe
27 March–2 April
State 5
Recovering
3 April
State 6
Normal flow
From 4 April
Systems insight
Restored throughput was not complete normalization.
Flow returned to its normal state on 4 April while normalized congestion stress remained at its maximum. Vessel movement had resumed, but backlog-clearance pressure remained extreme.
This distinction allows the runtime to represent multiple dimensions of recovery rather than treating reopening as the end of a disruption.
Acceptance criteria
All declared checks passed.
✓No pre-event disruption
✓Detection by 27 March
✓Severe state during blockage
✓Recovery during clearance
✓Normal flow after clearance
Replay contract
- Source
- Daily Suez chokepoint observations
- Baseline
- 1 January 2019–22 March 2021
- Replay
- 1 February–31 May 2021
- Environment
- Neutralized
- Event pressure
- Neutralized
- Thresholds
- Fixed before execution
- Provenance
- Clean, reproducible commit